Oscar picks: Critic calls long shot in top feature race
BY GENE TRIPLETT
Fact is giving fiction a run for its money in this year’s Oscar race, with four of the 10 Best Picture nominees based on true stories and real people.
Biopics of a pair of boxing brothers and a canyoneering survivor were good box office bets on critics’ tip sheets in 2010, but true tales of an Internet innovator and a stammering king are the odds-on favorites in this year’s run for Academy gold.
Here’s how this Oklahoma critic is calling the winners during Sunday night’s moments of truth at Hollywood’s Kodak Theatre.
Best picture
Gene says: A few weeks ago, one didn’t need a computer to figure the odds favored “The Social Network,” the superbly crafted movie screenwriter Aaron Sorkin and director David Fincher made out of Ben Mezrich’s bestselling book, “The Accidental Billionaires,” about the creation of the most powerful electronic narcotic to sweep the world since the advent of the Internet itself. Just like everyone else, most Academy voters are probably Facebook junkies by now, and the story of the gifted geek who invented it is too timely–and the film too well-acted, well-written and utterly intriguing–to be ignored.
You would think.
But it now looks like voters could be swayed by Tom Hooper‘s “The King’s Speech,” the true story of a monarch who struggled against an impossible obstacle to communicate with his subjects on an inspiring, human level. Historically, heart-rending period pieces with British accents have been Oscar magnets.
Still, I’m going to stick with my sucker’s bet …
Should win: “The King’s Speech”
Will win: “The Social Network”
Best actor
Gene says: Colin Firth will have some more public speaking to do Sunday night when he accepts this award for his keen ability to portray the male versions of vulnerable, frightened and courageous all at once, while affecting a startlingly realistic speech impediment that is heartbreaking to witness in “The King’s Speech.” Few of his contemporaries could handle as dodgy a role as this with such perfection. His deserving “A Single Man” performance lost out to Jeff Bridges’ “Crazy Heart” last year, and while I loved the way Bridges outgunned John Wayne with some real acting in the Coen brothers’ “True Grit” remake, my allegiance this year is to Firth’s stuttering King George VI.
Best actress
Gene says: In “The Kids Are All Right,” Annette Bening effortlessly claimed hearts with her smart, funny and deeply sensitive portrayal of a lesbian mom who fears the alienation of her family’s affections when her children seek out their sperm donor father and attempt to bring him into the fold. Her performance was controlled, convincing and enormously engaging, deftly avoiding the emotional showboating this kind of role can tempt in lesser talents. But “Black Swan” star Natalie Portman has youth and popularity going for her and she never misstepped in the dramatically rich role of a prima ballerina pushed to mental breakdown. Still, Bening’s been nominated three times before, so maybe her times has come.
Should win: Annette Bening
Will win: Natalie Portman
Best supporting actor
Gene says: Geoffrey Rush’s sly, low-key take on the oddball Australian speech therapist who comes to the aid of a stammering monarch in “The King’s Speech” was easily one of the most interesting characterizations of the past year, as was John Hawkes’ unsettlingly dark backwoods criminal in “Winter’s Bone.” But Christian Bale was part of the stunning one-two punch of “The Fighter” as the ex-con, failed-boxer-turned-crackhead who trains his half-brother for the welterweight title. His convincingly wired, wild-eyed performance had an unforgettable clout that will no doubt win him the decision.
Should win: Geoffrey Rush
Will win: Christian Bale
Best supporting actress
Gene says: Former Tulsa resident Melissa Leo was the other half of “The Fighter’s” double whammy as the domineering matriarch of a blue collar Lowell, Mass., family and the abrasive manager of her two boxing sons. She nailed the part perfectly, right down the Massachusetts accent. The only other contender who comes close is 14-year-old newcomer Hailee Steinfeld as the spitfire farm girl out for justice in the Coen brothers’ version of “True Grit,” although she should have been nominated as a leading actress in that role.
Should and will win: Melissa Leo
Best director
Gene says: It stands to reason that the person who helmed the Best Picture should win the Best Director prize, but reason seems to have little to do with the thought processes of the average Academy voter. In a perfect world, David Fincher (“Fight Club,” “Seven,” “Zodiak,” “Benjamin Button”) should take the statuette for the stylish visuals, taut pacing and superlative performances found in “The Social Network.” Hooper (“The Damned United”) could pull an upset, however, for his majestic craftsmanship in “The King’s Speech,” or Darren Aronofsky (“The Wrestler”) could dance away with the trophy for his adventurous flair in “Black Swan.”
Should and will win: David Fincher
A few extra bets:
Best original screenplay
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Best adapted screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Best animated feature
“Toy Story 3”
Best documentary feature
“Exit through the Gift Shop”












