Oscar Guesses: Let the Darts Fly
BY DENNIS KING
Having earned a living for a couple of decades by babbling on about movies, it is perhaps impolitic to admit that I’m not very good at guessing Oscar winners. The average popcorn Joe predicting in the average Oscar office pool probably has as good a track record at picking winners as me.
It’s not a function of movie knowledge or keen insight or anything like that. It’s just that quirky tastes in movies often lead to quirky predictions when it comes Oscar time (I’d much rather vote the low-budget underdog than the fabulous front-runner). That, and the fact that reading the tea leaves on how 6,000 or so official Oscar voters will vote (they are indeed a fractious bunch) is sheer folly.
My favorite axiom on Oscar expertise is drawn from that grand screenwriter and two-time Oscar-winner William Goldman, who famously wrote, “In Hollywood, nobody knows anything.”
Early on in my tenure as a professional “film cricket” (Homer Simpson’s term), I concocted an admittedly goofy experiment in which I tacked lists of Oscar nominees on a dart board and let fly a dart at each of the Big Six categories (supporting actor, supporting actress, actor, actress, director and best movie). Then I compared my own furrow-browed prognostications with the whims of the dart.
And the dart’s random picks were more successful than mine. D’oh!
So anyway, after that long-winded prelude, here are my best guesses at statuette winners of the 82nd Academy Awards to be presented Sunday evening in an overstuffed ceremony airing on ABC from Hollywood’s Kodak Theatre.
Best actress in a supporting role: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart.” (The Academy’s actors’ branch is the largest and most politically fragmented voting body, and it’s often in supporting categories that upsets and surprises occur. But Gyllenhaal, so good in this gritty, naturalistic serio-comedy, is a popular candidate who’s compiled an impressive body of work. So it just feels like her time.)
Best actor in a supporting role: Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger.” (The movie, one of several fine meditations of late on the terrible toll of war, is perhaps too grim and little seen to attract voters. But the sometimes erratic Harrelson proves himself a serious acting force in this tightly contained yet volatile performance. It is indeed Oscar-worthy.)
Best actress in a leading role: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side.” (Another popular – and populist – actress who is finally nominated for a role weighty and inspirational enough to attract lots of sympathetic voters. It just feels like she’s due.)
Best actor in a leading role: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart.” (Call it the Lebowski Effect, but Bridges inhabits broken-down, psychically damaged roles like Bad Blake as if he were born on a barstool in a bowling alley. He’s another actor whose body of superb work should win him loads of popular support among fellow actors, even in a shaggy-dog movie such as this.)
Best director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker.” (All indicators – previous awards ceremonies – point to a breakthrough Oscar for Bigelow. First woman ever to win and all that. Aside from the juicy satisfaction of seeing her beat out James “King of the World” Cameron, her ex-husband with his monumental ego, Bigelow simply deserves to win for a superior piece of film storytelling – rich in detail, complex human dimension and thrumming dramatic impact.)
Best picture. “The Hurt Locker.” (With all the hoopla about expanding the best picture category to 10 nominees, in the final run it seemed to narrow down to a two-picture race between “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar.” Low-budget indie grit versus big-budget special-effects razzle-dazzle. Gut-level storytelling versus high-tech eye-candy. Art versus commerce. Perhaps setting up this David-and-Goliath dynamic will succeed in drawing in more viewers to the Oscar telecast, but if Oscars are in truth about celebrating some mythic “best” in the year’s movies, then all 10 nominees are winners. But “The Hurt Locker” should be first among equals.)

